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#1 Destiny123

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Posted 17 December 2016 - 10:49 PM

Arenamate has quite different cutoffs compared to other similar websites.

 

R1 Horde: ~2754 (98)          R1 Ally: ~2928 (112)

 

Glad Horde: ~2455 (490)       Glad Ally: ~2610 (563)

 

Does anyone know how they calculated this? Anyone with some insider information? Or is it just a bug?

 

 


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#2 anad1o

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Posted 17 December 2016 - 11:21 PM

Let me explain this:

 

- Every site tries to estimate the real faction representation which is UNKNOWN down to a rating of 1000 due to a lack of information on Blizzard's side. arenamate was the first site to adjust this (the ratio is nowhere near like 65/35, it evens out the lower you go in rating).

- The leaderboards showed wrong/incomplete information just before the season ended, which means cutoffs are off on any site you look at.

 

Summed up:

 

- Every site has different snapshots of the last complete information about leaderboards and every site uses different faction representation.

- I can tell you one of these sites uses wrong faction representations (they use the one from the first 5000 players, which is completely off).

- I can also tell you that another site swapped the faction representations by mistake (Horde <-> Alliance).

- Both errors where not made on arenamate. There's still a lack of information which leads to a high overall uncertainty, though.
 


Edited by anad1o, 17 December 2016 - 11:22 PM.

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#3 Divinitum

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Posted 17 December 2016 - 11:50 PM

So the guess of arenamate could still be off by up to 50-75 points if not more? #desperation


Edited by Divinitum, 17 December 2016 - 11:50 PM.

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#4 Warmonger_Skulm

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Posted 18 December 2016 - 12:48 AM

There was a big push at the last night of season (EU), the ladders and online trackers were bugged around midnight. The most accurate cutoff would be represented by the latest snapshot of the accurate ladder (the one closest to the season end) calculated with the accurate faction percentage (unknown factor, the percentage of alliance and horde split on total players can only be guessed atm, some websites take a guess around 59% Alliance 41% Horde, some websites directly calculate on 50%-50% basis).

 

For arenamate, I could say that 2610 alliance EU is too low, if you check leaderboard snapshot around 00:30 CET, rank 563 (this is what arenamate claims as alliance glad cutoff) is at 2651 rating. Therefore, even though arenamate's 50-50 guess has the chance of being accurate, the wrong ladder information causes it to confuse the rating (down to 2610).

 

The trackers went down around midnight, so we have 6.5 hours of darkness, and only a few people know what happened during that last push period. The glad cutoff could even be 2700, because it depends on the rank. All I can say for sure that 2700+ is safe glad tbh. People above 2650 have a chance of getting glad as well (speaking for eu alliance)

 

On the other hand, we should also remember that there will be disqualifications. I have seen a lot people miraculously getting +700 +800 rating at the last night. Now it is possible that they could have farmed it legit, but it looks really suspicious, considering that most glad-range players were actively playing throughout the season.

 

The healthiest way to check your cutoff would be to consider the worst case scenario, apply arenamate's 50-50 approach to a more updated ladder (most recent was around 00:30 I think), check the rank, and the rating at that rank, you will have an idea on what happened 6 hours before the deadline. If you really want to go crazy, you could calculate the rating increase rate (compare 1 day before with the last day's increase, and use proportionality to approximate the potential rating increase in those last 6.5 hours).

 

If somebody has any updated information (dq, another recent snapshot etc) please feel free to correct me.


Edited by Warmonger_Skulm, 18 December 2016 - 12:49 AM.

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#5 Itsnel

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Posted 18 December 2016 - 03:11 AM

There was a big push at the last night of season (EU), the ladders and online trackers were bugged around midnight. The most accurate cutoff would be represented by the latest snapshot of the accurate ladder (the one closest to the season end) calculated with the accurate faction percentage (unknown factor, the percentage of alliance and horde split on total players can only be guessed atm, some websites take a guess around 59% Alliance 41% Horde, some websites directly calculate on 50%-50% basis).

 

For arenamate, I could say that 2610 alliance EU is too low, if you check leaderboard snapshot around 00:30 CET, rank 563 (this is what arenamate claims as alliance glad cutoff) is at 2651 rating. Therefore, even though arenamate's 50-50 guess has the chance of being accurate, the wrong ladder information causes it to confuse the rating (down to 2610).

 

The trackers went down around midnight, so we have 6.5 hours of darkness, and only a few people know what happened during that last push period. The glad cutoff could even be 2700, because it depends on the rank. All I can say for sure that 2700+ is safe glad tbh. People above 2650 have a chance of getting glad as well (speaking for eu alliance)

 

On the other hand, we should also remember that there will be disqualifications. I have seen a lot people miraculously getting +700 +800 rating at the last night. Now it is possible that they could have farmed it legit, but it looks really suspicious, considering that most glad-range players were actively playing throughout the season.

 

The healthiest way to check your cutoff would be to consider the worst case scenario, apply arenamate's 50-50 approach to a more updated ladder (most recent was around 00:30 I think), check the rank, and the rating at that rank, you will have an idea on what happened 6 hours before the deadline. If you really want to go crazy, you could calculate the rating increase rate (compare 1 day before with the last day's increase, and use proportionality to approximate the potential rating increase in those last 6.5 hours).

 

If somebody has any updated information (dq, another recent snapshot etc) please feel free to correct me.

 

some people claim that there was a bug with mmr after the server restart, like everyone getting +200flat mmr increase

no idea if it is actually true^^ the hotfixes were already live when the season was still going on XD

just wow pvp things


Edited by Itsnel, 18 December 2016 - 03:11 AM.

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#6 Korzul

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Posted 18 December 2016 - 05:42 AM

like everyone getting +200flat mmr increase no idea if it is actually true^^

 

 

Aye a few people have said after the servers restarts team mmr got hugely inflated, we're chatting more than 200 mmr here.

 

If you were 2.5k initially and were splitting 50/50 wins with the same teams they were queueing into before the reset then you got gifted free glad rating.

 

Like how do they even screw that up? "Hey guys we're running only a 3 month season here so we'll gift everyone an extra 6 months of rating inflation in the last 2 hours"

 

Entire thing's a shit show regardless with the faction split (we all queue into the same fucking people) and racials don't make up a 150+ rating difference. On top of there being zero way to track the actual cutoffs...

 

Blizz never fails to impress.


Edited by Korzul, 18 December 2016 - 05:44 AM.

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#7 justicecute

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Posted 18 December 2016 - 05:45 AM

I knew something would happen


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#8 Destiny123

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Posted 18 December 2016 - 10:09 PM

Let me explain this:

 

- Every site tries to estimate the real faction representation which is UNKNOWN down to a rating of 1000 due to a lack of information on Blizzard's side. arenamate was the first site to adjust this (the ratio is nowhere near like 65/35, it evens out the lower you go in rating).

- The leaderboards showed wrong/incomplete information just before the season ended, which means cutoffs are off on any site you look at.

 

Summed up:

 

- Every site has different snapshots of the last complete information about leaderboards and every site uses different faction representation.

- I can tell you one of these sites uses wrong faction representations (they use the one from the first 5000 players, which is completely off).

- I can also tell you that another site swapped the faction representations by mistake (Horde <-> Alliance).

- Both errors where not made on arenamate. There's still a lack of information which leads to a high overall uncertainty, though.
 

How accurate do you think that your cutoffs are?


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#9 Warmonger_Skulm

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Posted 19 December 2016 - 04:28 PM

some people claim that there was a bug with mmr after the server restart, like everyone getting +200flat mmr increase

no idea if it is actually true^^ the hotfixes were already live when the season was still going on XD

just wow pvp things

 

No way, if that is the case, gg then, the cutoff might be 2700+, unless Blizzard fixes that ofc.


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#10 Refren

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Posted 19 December 2016 - 05:13 PM

No way, if that is the case, gg then, the cutoff might be 2700+, unless Blizzard fixes that ofc.

what are u even saying if ur 2650+ on ally ur getting ur glad 100%


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#11 Warmonger_Skulm

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Posted 19 December 2016 - 10:20 PM

what are u even saying if ur 2650+ on ally ur getting ur glad 100%

 

Are you sure 2650+ EU alliance is getting glad ? What is your opinion based on ?


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#12 Itsnel

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Posted 19 December 2016 - 11:21 PM

what are u even saying if ur 2650+ on ally ur getting ur glad 100%

 

doubt it, no way the ratio is 61:39, just no way


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#13 Refren

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Posted 20 December 2016 - 12:31 AM

doubt it, no way the ratio is 61:39, just no way

 

 

most pvp playerbase has been alliance on eu since release of cataclysm id argue more than 61% arena players are ally 61% is low balling it not to mention for glad cutoff to go up 50 points in 3 hours fucking 200+ people would have to q up and all gain rating 


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#14 Warmonger_Skulm

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Posted 20 December 2016 - 11:17 AM

doubt it, no way the ratio is 61:39, just no way

 

The ratio is the least of the problems, considering the boosters

 

 

most pvp playerbase has been alliance on eu since release of cataclysm id argue more than 61% arena players are ally 61% is low balling it not to mention for glad cutoff to go up 50 points in 3 hours fucking 200+ people would have to q up and all gain rating 

 

I know a couple of people who transferred to Horde to get above the cutoff, this will reduce the Alliance population. I think it should lower the percentage.

 

However, I agree about the cutoff, but the unclarity is a big issue.


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#15 Refren

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Posted 20 December 2016 - 12:04 PM

The ratio is the least of the problems, considering the boosters

 

 

 

I know a couple of people who transferred to Horde to get above the cutoff, this will reduce the Alliance population. I think it should lower the percentage.

 

However, I agree about the cutoff, but the unclarity is a big issue.

high end players transfering has nothing to do with cutoff % they are a very small minority people that decide cutoff are players between 1k - 2k rating 


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#16 Warmonger_Skulm

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Posted 20 December 2016 - 12:25 PM

high end players transfering has nothing to do with cutoff % they are a very small minority people that decide cutoff are players between 1k - 2k rating 

 

On that, I agree, but I can't defend for 61% Alliance ratio tbh, with Legion, in general, it feels like Horde population increased, so maybe comparing it with Cata could be problematic, that's all I am saying.

 

Therefore, this would also affect the cutoff. I don't know if 2650+ on eu alliance is safe glad tbh. I would say so for 2700+ though.


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#17 justicecute

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Posted 20 December 2016 - 04:14 PM

??So is 2610 for horde considered safe?? 

 

 

Because i sat it for like 2 and a half weeks 


Edited by justicecute, 20 December 2016 - 04:14 PM.

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#18 Abidalzim

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Posted 20 December 2016 - 04:47 PM

On that, I agree, but I can't defend for 61% Alliance ratio tbh, with Legion, in general, it feels like Horde population increased, so maybe comparing it with Cata could be problematic, that's all I am saying.

 

Therefore, this would also affect the cutoff. I don't know if 2650+ on eu alliance is safe glad tbh. I would say so for 2700+ though.

I've recently seen a chart that showed more horde than alliance 110s on EU servers.


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#19 Warmonger_Skulm

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Posted 20 December 2016 - 08:56 PM

I've recently seen a chart that showed more horde than alliance 110s on EU servers.

 

There is a chart which confused horde and alliance ratio, as previously stated here on this forum. Perhaps that is the case here.


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#20 DkH.ZeRa

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Posted 21 December 2016 - 08:19 AM

??So is 2610 for horde considered safe?? 

 

 

Because i sat it for like 2 and a half weeks 

 

2610 on EU-Horde is safe Glad.


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