Jump to content

Is Poker a luck-based game?


  • Please log in to reply
41 replies to this topic

#1 Lolkek

Lolkek
  • Members
  • Orcclass_name
  • EU-Frostwolf
  • Blutdurst
  • Posts: 31
  • Talents:

Posted 15 December 2010 - 01:06 PM

What I'm trying to figure out (being very new to this game) is whether Poker is a "90% luck & 10% skill" game? Or is it 50-50? Or maybe 10-90?

Thanks.

#2 dicon

dicon
  • Junkies
  • Trollclass_name
  • EU-Ysera
  • Reckoning / Abrechnung
  • Posts: 439
  • Talents: Assassination

Posted 15 December 2010 - 08:58 PM

its gambling with a littl skill

#3 Hyuru

Hyuru
  • Junkies
  • Humanclass_name
  • EU-Outland
  • Misery
  • Posts: 9228
  • Talents: Subtlety 1/2/2/0/0/0
  • RBG: 2237
  • LocationNOT EVEN EU

Posted 15 December 2010 - 08:58 PM

abit of both

#4 Crackslapper

Crackslapper
  • Junkies
  • Taurenclass_name
  • US-Cho'gall
  • Rampage
  • Posts: 3350
  • Talents:

Posted 15 December 2010 - 08:59 PM

it's a lot of skill unless you leave after one hand

#5 reqzpete

reqzpete
  • Members
  • Undeadclass_name
  • EU-Tarren Mill
  • Misery
  • Posts: 991
  • Talents: Assassination

Posted 15 December 2010 - 10:25 PM

live is alot more skilled than online for obvious reasons
Spoiler
Spoiler

#6 nstomper

nstomper
  • Junkies
  • Trollclass_name
  • US-Blackrock
  • Bloodlust
  • Posts: 2920
  • Talents: Fire
  • LocationWisconsin

Posted 15 December 2010 - 10:36 PM

As Short term is more luck, long term is skill.  Another HUGE part is emotional control.  If you tilt often, you are going to kill your ev.

#7 nstomper

nstomper
  • Junkies
  • Trollclass_name
  • US-Blackrock
  • Bloodlust
  • Posts: 2920
  • Talents: Fire
  • LocationWisconsin

Posted 15 December 2010 - 10:38 PM

reqzpete said:

live is alot more skilled than online for obvious reasons

This is terribly wrong.  Online has MUCH better players overall.  If you're thinking about "tells" it's mostly bullshit.

#8 reqzpete

reqzpete
  • Members
  • Undeadclass_name
  • EU-Tarren Mill
  • Misery
  • Posts: 991
  • Talents: Assassination

Posted 15 December 2010 - 10:42 PM

nstomper said:

This is terribly wrong.  Online has MUCH better players overall.  If you're thinking about "tells" it's mostly bullshit.

iam not an experienced player, i was just under the impression that reading people (so to speak) was a negligible thing online, compared to live play. fair enough

do explain why because iam genuinely interested
Spoiler
Spoiler

#9 nstomper

nstomper
  • Junkies
  • Trollclass_name
  • US-Blackrock
  • Bloodlust
  • Posts: 2920
  • Talents: Fire
  • LocationWisconsin

Posted 15 December 2010 - 11:02 PM

reqzpete said:

iam not an experienced player, i was just under the impression that reading people (so to speak) was a negligible thing online, compared to live play. fair enough

do explain why because iam genuinely interested

I was semi-pro for about a year.  Was making 4-5k/month for awhile.  "reading" people more comes in the form of understanding how they bet.  The concept that you can look at someone and if theyre scratching their eyebrow with their left hand when they're bluffing is almost completely false.  This isn't a real trick I just made it up as example.  

Live is amazingly easy.  I love it.  The only thing that sucks about live is that it's so slow.  One hand at a time when you're used to 4-8 tables at a time online is really boring.  Other than completely bullshit sessions where I get completely robbed "81.7% favorite and lose" live for me was always very consistent money.

#10 Lolkek

Lolkek
  • Members
  • Orcclass_name
  • EU-Frostwolf
  • Blutdurst
  • Posts: 31
  • Talents:

Posted 16 December 2010 - 10:40 AM

As far as I can see from the comments it's 50-50 skill/luck. So what makes you skilled? Calculating the odds of getting a good/bad combination accroding to your hand? Analizing the likelihood of a good/bad hand of other players according to the flop/turn/river and your own hand?

I mean, for example, if you have an Ace and a King in your hand and there's an Ace and a King in the flop and your playing against 1 guy, the chances of him having something potentially stronger in his hands are not very high -kinda stuff?

#11 Elraen

Elraen
  • Junkies
  • Humanclass_name
  • US-Crushridge
  • Cyclone
  • Posts: 2199
  • Talents: Unholy
  • RBG: 2028

Posted 16 December 2010 - 02:15 PM

nstomper said:

I was semi-pro for about a year.  Was making 4-5k/month for awhile.  "reading" people more comes in the form of understanding how they bet.  The concept that you can look at someone and if theyre scratching their eyebrow with their left hand when they're bluffing is almost completely false.  This isn't a real trick I just made it up as example.  

Live is amazingly easy.  I love it.  The only thing that sucks about live is that it's so slow.  One hand at a time when you're used to 4-8 tables at a time online is really boring.  Other than completely bullshit sessions where I get completely robbed "81.7% favorite and lose" live for me was always very consistent money.

This pretty much.  I played for a few years online and did pretty well.  Successful online players spend a lot of time mathematically analyzing their play.  Some things they take into consideration are how weak/strong they are in certain positions, how weak/strong they are with various hands in certain positions, how many times they play certain positions, how they play those positions, etc.  You consider how your opponents do all of the above as well.

Most live players aren't necessarily tracking the above data (some do, but probably don't have as much data as an online player would).  Live players are more prone to pick up the tendencies of other people at the table.  You're more likely to characterize someone than you are to pinpoint exactly how they'll play over the course of the long term.

In regards to the OP, poker is as much skill/luck as the stock market is.  If you know the ins and outs of the game, are good at math (esp probability), are good at reading trends, and have the bankroll/patience/emotional maturity to sustain yourself through losses, you can be a successful poker player.

I think it's hard to put a number on the skill/luck ratio.  The fact that there are people who make a living playing poker, some who have done it for decades, is evidence enough that skill is the really a significant factor in poker.
-Aëon, the hunter formerly known as Elraen
-Formerly Sïn


"And rmp is fine it isn't even that amazing"

-Gladiator Mage

#12 Elruhir

Elruhir
  • Junkies
  • Posts: 474

Posted 16 December 2010 - 06:26 PM

I think emotional control is a larger factor than luck/skill.
Posted Image

#13 Elraen

Elraen
  • Junkies
  • Humanclass_name
  • US-Crushridge
  • Cyclone
  • Posts: 2199
  • Talents: Unholy
  • RBG: 2028

Posted 16 December 2010 - 07:19 PM

Elruhir said:

I think emotional control is a larger factor than luck/skill.

I would say that controlling one's emotions IS a part of being a skillful player.
-Aëon, the hunter formerly known as Elraen
-Formerly Sïn


"And rmp is fine it isn't even that amazing"

-Gladiator Mage

#14 Crackslapper

Crackslapper
  • Junkies
  • Taurenclass_name
  • US-Cho'gall
  • Rampage
  • Posts: 3350
  • Talents:

Posted 16 December 2010 - 07:22 PM

Lolkek said:

As far as I can see from the comments it's 50-50 skill/luck. So what makes you skilled? Calculating the odds of getting a good/bad combination accroding to your hand? Analizing the likelihood of a good/bad hand of other players according to the flop/turn/river and your own hand?

I mean, for example, if you have an Ace and a King in your hand and there's an Ace and a King in the flop and your playing against 1 guy, the chances of him having something potentially stronger in his hands are not very high -kinda stuff?

yes, but then there's also taking into consideration how your opponents played their hand and making a best guess as to what they have and what they want you to think they have, how the flop and turns factored into their bets, and also how to raise/bet accordingly for yourself so that you can make the most profit

#15 Ispen

Ispen
  • Members
  • Gnomeclass_name
  • EU-Frostwhisper
  • Rampage / Saccage
  • Posts: 659
  • Talents: Subtlety

Posted 16 December 2010 - 08:32 PM

Tilt control, table selection, bankroll management are obviously extremely important but can be achieved by pure discipline.
Stuff like capability of deduction, memory. situational awareness are gifts, you can work hard and improve but some people who spent the same amount of time on those will be way better.
Luck is  also very important but it doesn't affect the long run except when you are trying to transition to higher stakes.If you run below EV at the beginning; you have to go back to lower stakes,grind more, waste months and come back to try again, unless you are willing to learn by burning money.

#16 Mackabre

Mackabre
  • Members
  • Undeadclass_name
  • US-Icecrown
  • Nightfall
  • Posts: 652
  • Talents:

Posted 17 December 2010 - 01:58 AM

Elraen said:

This pretty much.  I played for a few years online and did pretty well.  Successful online players spend a lot of time mathematically analyzing their play.  Some things they take into consideration are how weak/strong they are in certain positions, how weak/strong they are with various hands in certain positions, how many times they play certain positions, how they play those positions, etc.  You consider how your opponents do all of the above as well.

In regards to the OP, poker is as much skill/luck as the stock market is.  If you know the ins and outs of the game, are good at math (esp probability), are good at reading trends, and have the bankroll/patience/emotional maturity to sustain yourself through losses, you can be a successful poker player.

I think it's hard to put a number on the skill/luck ratio.  The fact that there are people who make a living playing poker, some who have done it for decades, is evidence enough that skill is the really a significant factor in poker.

Well put.

nstomper said:

I was semi-pro for about a year.  Was making 4-5k/month for awhile.  "reading" people more comes in the form of understanding how they bet.  The concept that you can look at someone and if theyre scratching their eyebrow with their left hand when they're bluffing is almost completely false.  This isn't a real trick I just made it up as example.  

I kinda agree with this. You're right that betting patterns and understanding them is huge in terms of "reading". But in live, its not as obvious as people scratching their eyebrow, but how they posture, what they look at, how they check/bet/raise, makes a big difference in reads, these things just aren't apparent in online for obvious reasons.

Eraseasaurus said:

You will not get Gladiator, if you do I promise to never post on any WoW related forums ever again.



Posted Image

#17 Blacknsilver

Blacknsilver
  • Members
  • Taurenclass_name
  • EU-Emeriss
  • Reckoning / Abrechnung
  • Posts: 3290
  • Talents: Restoration

Posted 19 December 2010 - 07:27 PM

As Nstomper said, the shorter the game- the more luck-based it is and vice-versa.
"Escape your only truth for a while"

#18 blaine

blaine
  • Members
  • Taurenclass_name
  • EU-The Maelstrom
  • Rampage / Saccage
  • Posts: 25
  • Talents:

Posted 23 December 2010 - 10:19 AM

One simple rule is:

If u play against the house, generally its not beatable (without cheating)
If u play against other players, it is beatable

in a short run its somewhat about luck but still your skills place you in situations where you are favored to win %-wise like 70% vs 30%. If you play this once you might get unlucky and lose to 30%... but when you do it thousands of times = you lose sometimes but most of the time you win it = profit.

Thing is, to get there you need to be mentally stable playing and your bankroll management need to be firm. Bankroll management should work like this: you have 1000$ and you set a rule you only put 5% of that in the table any given time = 50$. So, you get unlucky and lose few 50$'s what it means is that when your bankroll gets smaller also the amount you put in game gets smaller = almost impossible to run out of money just for unlucky streak (ofcourse you can play bad or tilt and cause you to be losing player)

It might feel like "i have 1000$ but i can only play with 50$ and that's very small money and slow!" but that's almost the only way to cut out luck factor from the game, and more u play bigger your roll gets and sooner or later you will have enough to play SAFELY in the big games.

So, it should be clear that poker is game that requires lots of patience and self-control. In my opinion those things are the fundamentals that create a good player.

When you know basics of poker and get these above things in order you can start sharpen your technical poker skills, read poker books and watch videos and best would get a friend to play too so you could share hands, and discuss what went wrong and why etc.

I'ma give some links i personally found useful :)

(www dot trulyfreepokertraining dot com) you can get free access to one of the best video/learning sites (cardrunners dot com) fulltilt is also one of the best sites to play, its big and trusted = your money is safe there and best of all you can get 27% rakeback deal with them (just google it as there are so many sites that offer it, but remember to get the deal before you make your fulltilt account)

(www dot pokerhand dot org) Free site to copypaste your hands and get easy link to give to friends or use in blogs if you like to keep one (example one of my hands www dot pokerhand dot org/?5871520)

(twodimes dot net/poker/) simple odds calculator

(www dot pokertableratings dot com) and (www dot sharkscope dot com) for player info search.. you can find info of your opponents and yourself

(forumserver.twoplustwo dot com) just one of the poker forums for discussion and info about poker :)

Hope this helps! (damn, cant post links)

#19 Kelarm

Kelarm
  • Junkies
  • Humanclass_name
  • US-Tichondrius
  • Bloodlust
  • Posts: 3567
  • Talents: ./././././.
  • RBG: 2922

Posted 25 December 2010 - 10:15 PM

Basic statistics would tell you that, once you play enough hands, luck is actually a complete non-factor.  

If you play 5k hands at a limit, luck will be a huge factor in how well you do.  

If you play 5 million hands at a limit, the effect of luck is essentially nil and all that matters is how you've played.

Most people don't play 5 million hands ofc, but the point is that luck plays a smaller and smaller role the more hands you put in.  

It's the same thing as flipping a coin.  If you flip a coin 4 times, the likelihood of getting 3 heads and 1 tails (or 3 tails and 1 head) is pretty high.  You could easily get 3 heads and 1 tails and say "heads is 75% and tails is 25%."  

But flip that coin 100 thousand times and you WILL come out to just about 50k heads and 50k tails for the 50/50 chance.

Official Blizzard Quote:

Part of the reason is that Battlegrounds are like ducks.
Finally, I understand why pvp in this game is so bad.

#20 Needonboots

Needonboots
  • Members
  • Goblinclass_name
  • EU-Doomhammer
  • Blackout
  • Posts: 1
  • Talents: Blood

Posted 27 December 2010 - 04:46 PM

If poker was more luck based, the same group of players wouldn't consistently come out ahead of the field.

I make a small amount of money playing, but it's because i don't play often, which leaves luck a greater factor. If I put in the time and effort, I reckon (not necessarily true :P ) I could generate a healthier amount of money than I do now.

It doesn't help of course that I normally play tournaments, rather than cash tables. The patience and self-control needed to play cash tables is probably a little past me.




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users

<