Gladiator estimations over est./under est.

[Vampiric]

Say my BG has an estimation of 57 2vs2 teams getting gladiator, is this number an over estimation or under estimation? Do you think if 57 is wrong, more than 57 will get it or if it's wrong will less than 57 get it?

[Duraeas]

It is impossible to say. I personally think that the estimations of inactive teams are generally overestimations, but to be honest there may well be Battlegroups in which the estimates turn out to be conservative.

[Vampiric]

Anyone else have an idea?

[Dimachaeri]

They're very clearly overestimations, particularly for the 2v2 bracket. The calculator assumes 40% inactivity for 2v2, even though 30% is a much more likely number for any normal-sized battlegroup. The question is, how will the activity in the last few days change the calculator? We've already seem quite a bit movement on BG9, so the question is how many usurpers will there be? The inactivity estimations and the dynamics of the ladder will server to counterbalance each other; I would assume that we'll see a slight decrease in the rating required than what the calculator assumes.

BTW, we might soon be able to know the exact amount of inactive teams on every battlegroup. http://www.arenajunkies.com/showthread.php?t=3538

[Wonder]

Isn't it logical that if we believed the numbers to be inaccurate, that we would correct them?

[sabered]

Because they're very safe, and cautious estimations, Even if 50% 45% and 40% are way to large of numbers, they're very safe.

[Dimachaeri]

Isn't it logical that if we believed the numbers to be inaccurate, that we would correct them?

So if we guess the number of inactive to be 30%, but there is a realm with 32%, how do you think that 2% who thought they were safe would feel? On the other hand, if we guess 40% and the cutoff is 38%, do you really think that 2% who thought they wouldn't get gladiator but did would come here to moan and complain? You should understand now why it's wiser for the calculator to sway on the side of caution.