Arena Title Calculator: S2 Data + Updates

[Tyveris]

Season Two Calculator Data

By popular request, here is the data from season two.
http://www.arenajunkies.com/calculator/s2/

These were the cutoffs that we estimated from last season. You can compare these to the armory hall of fame if you are curious about the accuracy of the calculator. Remember, these were just estimations to give people some idea of where they stood.

Current Title Calculator

I am back home and will start crunching the data soon to see where the actual rating cutoff is approximately. Because of the new armory restrictions in place, it may be harder to get the cutoff for duelist as it involves looking through so many more teams, so we may only have gladiator cutoffs this season. Also, we will be attempting to see if the inactivity percentage is in line with last season. I will keep you updated as I start to parse the data and have more information for you.

[Disparity]

thx champion

[Isai]

rep+

:p

[Grombringal]

S2 estimations were freaking right, hope you can manage to get the same thing for S3 :p

[Iisindria]

Being a bit curious, how long will it generally take you to update all?

[Tyveris]

I was actually looking at that just now, and it looks like just to get gladiator cutoffs it will take between 4 to 5 hours. Duelist makes it take over 24 hours which won't be worth it.

[Iisindria]

Ok, cheers!

[Fierss]

For s2, it estimated 112 people would get glad in 2s from reckoning. 94 did.

Is there a way of trying to figure out the difference here, to compensate, and get a more accurate number? If not, I can just over-approximate on top of your numbers, via s2's guesstimates, just wondering.

[Tyveris]

Actually, it estimated that 100 would, and the 100th active was Rank 112. That rating was 2264. The actual rating cutoff was 2266.

It was off by 2. Use the rating as the estimator as that ends up close, don't use your rank.

[Tyveris]

Because of how close the clump will be at the cutoff, the difference in 5-6 teams will be only a couple rating, which is why using rating as a cutoff should be fairly accurate.

I remember comparing a lot of BGs actual rating to estimated rating and it came up surprisingly close, so hopefully that will be true again.

[Fierss]

Got it.
I wasn't complaining or anything, merely trying to remove as much inaccuracy/guesswork from the situation. I'll use ratings as a guideline over slot #s.

[Tyveris]

Oh no, I didn't take it that way. I was just explaining it as I'm sure a lot of people will have similar questions.

It's going to be even harder this season as there are so many more teams and a lot more win trading. I've got all the old threads going to try and figure out if the inactive percentage needs to be raised some. Hopefully after ~5 hours, I will have some data to compare to and then I can start updating the s3 tables to show rating instead of ~rank.

[Greenquark]

Awsome job, hope this is updated soon so I can use it as a semi-guide over the weekend.

[Naamari]

Any ETA?

[Tyveris]

It's moving slowly, crawling a lot of data slowly. The new restrictions suck a lot.

[Tyveris]

Parsing Emberstorm 5v5 currently, will start posting results in a few hours.

[Hyers]

:)

[Optimopeachy]

Thanks for the updates.

[Disparity]

wooot

[Tyveris]

At this rate, it will be done in ~5.5 hours. Its mainly just to make sure the % we are using as inactive is somewhat accurate with the new ruleset. Comparing this to last year should give us some idea. Then, I can start updating the calculator with the rating cutoffs.

[Gorrak]

<3 jooo tyv

[Desecrate]

Thanks for putting the time into this man.

[Eskodas]

First of all thank you Tyveris for being so awesome.

Second, are the minimum ranks required for gladiator still correct? As I understand it you're going through each battlegroup and bracket from number 1 down to the cutoff excluding inactive teams and finding the actual rating required, right?

[Tyveris]

Right now, the ranks aren't listed. It's just showing the estimated number of teams which isn't very helpful. I hope to have something ready by tomorrow evening.

[Tyveris]

Gonna have to post the numbers in the morning as it got interrupted and probably won't be done before I crash here. Letting it run over night.

[Popsycle]

First of all thank you Tyveris for being so awesome.

Second, are the minimum ranks required for gladiator still correct? As I understand it you're going through each battlegroup and bracket from number 1 down to the cutoff excluding inactive teams and finding the actual rating required, right?

Im proud of you and your accomplishments

[Scorch]

Thank you so much for doing this :D

[Tyveris]

Np. Here is the data I have for Emberstorm 5v5.
S3: Teams: 4537 Inactive: 2306 - 50.8%
S2: Teams: 1526 Inactive: 697 - 45.7%

Gonna try the really small EU bgs to see how they compare.

[Stinkiwink]

Now that is quite an increase in teams :D

[Disparity]

Now that is quite an increase in teams :D
yudodgin has brought over way to many people imo :S

[Tyveris]

Np. Here is the data I have for Emberstorm 5v5.
S3: Teams: 4537 Inactive: 2306 - 50.8%
S2: Teams: 1526 Inactive: 697 - 45.7%

Gonna try the really small EU bgs to see how they compare.

EU-Vindication 5v5
S3: Teams: 2666 Inactive: 1628 - 61.1%
S2: Teams: 952 Inactive: 568 - 59.7%

Gonna try Sturmangriff while US-Retaliation finishes up.

[Digitally]

Tyveris, how about 2v2 numbers? I assume the calculator isn't update yet right? Numbers look the same from what I remember.

Thanks for the hard work. You rock man.

[Tyveris]

No it hasn't been updated. Unfortunately, I don't think there is a single BG with all the 2v2 teams visible, so we will just have to go on the assumption it is similar to the 5v5. Last season, 2v2 inactivity numbers were very similar to 5v5 as well.

[Prcko]

I believe 3v3 should have lowest %inactivity but maybe it is just me

[Tyveris]

I believe 3v3 should have lowest %inactivity but maybe it is just me
3v3 inactivity probably gets pumped the most from team selling though. It's hard to say since we are working with incomplete data. I'm going to just take last years inactivity % which was ~45%, see how must last years real number increased and go with that as this years inactivity %. Once that number is more or less et in stone, we can start calculating where that rating cutoff is.

[Prcko]

3v3 inactivity probably gets pumped the most from team selling though. It's hard to say since we are working with incomplete data. I'm going to just take last years inactivity % which was ~45%, see how must last years real number increased and go with that as this years inactivity %. Once that number is more or less et in stone, we can start calculating where that rating cutoff is.

I have one question. Im guessing you are only using armory to get your data.But as we know armory isnt really reliable. Recently i have found on armory team that has 1200 rating showing they are ranked higher than team rated 1400. Both teams ofcourse arent displayed on the "5000 teams ladder". So the question is what team will your title calculator see as lower ranked/rated?
edit: if u didnt understand my question i can provide links to specifics team here or via PM

[Tyveris]

I only track the visible range. Example: Gladiator is top 100. I go through every team on the armory until 100 active teams are met, and then record the rating in the listing. Then, its updated daily as teams keep playing.

[Naamari]

When are you gonna start 2v2 calculations? :P

[heehaweman]

Tyveris will you be updating the actual Title Calculator under "Tools" section, or will the numbers be posted on this forum instead?

[Tyveris]

When are you gonna start 2v2 calculations? :P
There are more than 5000 teams for all 2v2 brackets, so we are going to have to go with the assumption that they have approximately the same amount of activity as 5v5. This was true in S2. I'll start updating the calculator tonight.

[Naamari]

cool, ty

[Vander]

anxious :P

[Tyveris]

Final results, but I have to run for a bit so will have to analyze and get the calculator updated later.

US-Emberstorm 5v5
S3: Teams: 4537 Inactive: 2306 - 50.8%
S2: Teams: 1526 Inactive: 697 - 45.7%

EU-Vindication 5v5
S3: Teams: 2666 Inactive: 1628 - 61.1%
S2: Teams: 952 Inactive: 568 - 59.7%

EU-Sturmangriff 5v5
S3: Teams: 2476 Inactive: 1446 - 58.4%
S2: Teams: 961 Inactive: 504 - 52.5%

US-Retaliation 5v5
S3: Teams: 4930 Inactive: 2756 - 55.9% (Incomplete only 1350+ teams)
S2: Teams: 1701 Inactive: 857 - 50.4%

[heehaweman]

Do you plan on doing this for 2s and 3s?

[Shadowsaurus]

Do you plan on doing this for 2s and 3s?

He's finding the inactive percentage in only the 5v5 bracket for each battlegroup, and then applying that percentage to 2s and 3s to find out how many *active* teams get glad.

Then, whatever that number is, he finds and counts the *active* teams from the first to that number. Once he gets to the *active* team at that number, he will tell us the rating, and that will be about the rating required for glad.

[faction]

I'm sure someones already mentioned this, but using the s2 hall of fame as an indicator of anything is dumb. Its bugged out, etc, many teams are missing

[Tyveris]

Gonna run the scraper over night with the assumption of 50% inactivity. Will have it display in the AM. Until then, think about why 50% might be wrong and let me know if you have any conclusions. I am all ears.

[Fatalis2]

Final results, but I have to run for a bit so will have to analyze and get the calculator updated later.

US-Emberstorm 5v5
S3: Teams: 4537 Inactive: 2306 - 50.8%
S2: Teams: 1526 Inactive: 697 - 45.7%

EU-Vindication 5v5
S3: Teams: 2666 Inactive: 1628 - 61.1%
S2: Teams: 952 Inactive: 568 - 59.7%

EU-Sturmangriff 5v5
S3: Teams: 2476 Inactive: 1446 - 58.4%
S2: Teams: 961 Inactive: 504 - 52.5%

US-Retaliation 5v5
S3: Teams: 4930 Inactive: 2756 - 55.9% (Incomplete only 1350+ teams)
S2: Teams: 1701 Inactive: 857 - 50.4%


Explain what the numbers are after it says, Inactive:

Iam confused

[Tyveris]

Number of inactive teams. What % is inactive. S3 was this seasons calculations, S2 was from the same calculations done last season.

[Vander]

So, correct me if I'm wrong but, since it looks like the netto amount of teams playing in s3 compared to s2 has doubled in numbers, doesn't this mean gladiator cutoff will qualify nearly double as many teams ?

[Konvic]

Final results, but I have to run for a bit so will have to analyze and get the calculator updated later.

US-Emberstorm 5v5
S3: Teams: 4537 Inactive: 2306 - 50.8%
S2: Teams: 1526 Inactive: 697 - 45.7%

EU-Vindication 5v5
S3: Teams: 2666 Inactive: 1628 - 61.1%
S2: Teams: 952 Inactive: 568 - 59.7%

EU-Sturmangriff 5v5
S3: Teams: 2476 Inactive: 1446 - 58.4%
S2: Teams: 961 Inactive: 504 - 52.5%

US-Retaliation 5v5
S3: Teams: 4930 Inactive: 2756 - 55.9% (Incomplete only 1350+ teams)
S2: Teams: 1701 Inactive: 857 - 50.4%

Then going by those numbers, the top .5% for emberstorm would be 11 teams that will be getting Glad. I am assuming that the title calculator has not been updated yet.

Thanks for all of your time you put into this tyv. I am pretty sure that many people owe you for knowing the answer of the dreaded "To que or not to que" question that bugs us all at the end of a season.

[Iisindria]

I don't exactly get it - the only way for a team to be inactive so to have less than 20 games played. How does up to 60% of some bg's reach Glad rank without playing more than 19 games? /confused.

[Hydra]

First of all, thank you alot for the work you put into this Tyveris. Second, can peeps please stop asking questions tons of others before you have allready asked. Look abit around on forum. And i'm pretty sure you will figure it out on your own.
Tyv is kinda busy doing other stuff atm=]

[Vander]

I don't exactly get it - the only way for a team to be inactive so to have less than 20 games played. How does up to 60% of some bg's reach Glad rank without playing more than 19 games? /confused.

1. more then 100 rating from teamrating disqualifies you aswell

2. '60% of some bg's reach Glad rank' what the hell are you talking about ?

[Iisindria]

2. '60% of some bg's reach Glad rank' what the hell are you talking about ?

Meh, nvm, I'm just being plain stupid.

[heehaweman]

When will the actual title calculator be updated?

[faction]

Gonna run the scraper over night with the assumption of 50% inactivity. Will have it display in the AM. Until then, think about why 50% might be wrong and let me know if you have any conclusions. I am all ears.

With the abolition of point selling recently i'd say 50% inactive is a bit much considering last season was 45%.

[Tyveris]

With the abolition of point selling recently i'd say 50% inactive is a bit much considering last season was 45%.
But, a lot those teams are still around. Plus the new requirements are even more strict in the past. I'm basing an increase off the slight increase from last season to this is some of the known battle groups. Also, I always want to try and err on the side of caution.

I'm gonna get a thread going in a sec to discuss possible ways to get it more accurate.

[Naamari]

calculator says number of glads is 136 but glad rank 146, what does that exactly mean?

[Tyveris]

calculator says number of glads is 136 but glad rank 146, what does that exactly mean?
There are 136 gladiator spots, but the 146th team is the 136th active team. That means above 146 there are 10 teams considered to be inactive.

Locking this thread to keep discussion in the official release thread.
http://www.arenajunkies.com/showthread.php?t=26390